Study and Extension on Modeling
the Road Network Reliability
Abstract
Road network reliability has attracted
a lot of interests from nowaday academic researchers and
practitioners due to its vital significance to industrial
operation, economical development and people’s daily life..
This paper analyzed the uncertainty of the road network,
and systemically reviewed the updated research progresses
of the road network reliability internationally and nationally
regarding the various indices, models and frequently used
approaches. In order to evaluate uncertainty of the road
network, a probabilistic user equilibrium model (PUE)
was proposed, in which travel times are random variables.
Finally, an improved reliability model was formulated
based on the reserve network capacity and the PUE model.
Key words: Connectivity Reliability;
Travel Time Reliability; Capacity Reliability; PUE
可靠度指“系统能够在规定的条件和规定的时间内实现预定功能或目标的概率”(Bell
and Iida, 1997)，是衡量系统性能的重要指标。很多系统（电力系统、管道系统和通讯网络等）都把可靠度分析作为网络规划、设计和运营管理的一个必要部分。随着交通系统对社会经济发展所起的支持作用越来越大、以及用户（用路人）对于服务的要求越来越高，路网的可靠度分析也已引起了日益广泛的关注。路网可靠度分析不仅可以用于路网性能评价、网络结构调整和优化，更可以确定路网中的敏感性和关键性路段，为交通管理提供重要依据。
